“This figure shows a complementary way of mapping out the consequences. For those familiar with “fish bone” diagrams, this is the reverse of one. The taken position is a zeroth-order effect and it has first-order effects. Positive effects go over the line. Negative effects go under the line. Each effect also has second-order effects. Positive effects go over the line. Negative effects go under the line. It’s difficult to say if a position that has a weak positive first-order effect with a strong negative second-order effect or a weak negative first-order effect with a strong positive second-order effect is net positive. If this can’t be determined, the behavior is too complicated and should be avoided (see here). Hopefully this won’t be a problem and second-order effects can be ignored. However, sometimes second- and even third-order effects either add up or accumulate undetected for a long time before triggering spectacular event.”

[Hobby] The zeroth-order goal is to have fun. The first-order negative side effect is that it costs money. Another first-order negative effect is that it may require space. This space requirement has a second-order negative side effect in that this too requires money. A first-order positive effect may be meeting new people. A second-order positive effect of that is that this could allow for professional networking. A third-order positive effect is that this could lead to a job.

[Side business] The zeroth-order goal is to learn how to run a business. Startup costs are a first-order negative effect. Income is a first-order positive effect; for many, income might be the zeroth-order goal. Running a business has a time cost which may be positive or negative. Regardless, a positive second-order effect of this is that this time is not spent spending money.

[Job] The zeroth-order goal is to earn money. Developing a career is a first-order positive side effect. Being stressed or unhealthy is a first-order negative side effect, as is the cost of business attire and keeping up appearances. A second-order negative effect of this is spending money to make up for this, either by taking drugs or shopping.

这里提到的鱼骨图还是挺有意思的。衡量是否要去做一件事，先找到它最根本的zeroth-order effect作为鱼骨的脊椎。然后找出first-order postive和first-order negative effects，再从first-order effect出发找出second，third order effects。然后综合去衡量一件事对于一个人来说是更加积极还是消极。如果比较难判断，那作者觉得这件事就态度砸了，干脆不做。作者同时也提示，second- or third-order effects可能长期积累也会有很深刻的影响。

可以拿读书来举个例子。对于我来说读书： zeroth-order effect是丰富自己的内心。

  1. first-order postive effect: 拓宽自己的视野，从不同的视角看世界。
    • second-order postive effect: 能够帮助在工作生活中多角度看问题
    • second-order negative effect: 如果缺少思考和选择看什么书，容易被带跑偏
  2. first-order postive effect: 发现自己的无知，以及看到世界的广阔。
    • second-order positive effect: 让自己养成谦逊的品质
  3. first-order negative effect: 以我的看书习惯比较费脖子，对健康有影响
    • second-order postive effect: 促使我经常起来活动