Early Retirement Extreme - A philosophical and practical guide to financial independence - 17
“Here is a simple equation which summarizes this paragraph:54 (dP)/(dE)=P(1-P) What it says is that with few resources (when P on the right-hand side is low corresponding to the lower left side of the figure and P(1-P)~P), the ability to change will be proportional to the resources. This works like compound interest and it’ll create exponential growth”
“However, compound interest in itself never made anyone rich. Invest $1 at 8% and wait 30 years to get $10. This is hardly a worthwhile sum for 30 years of waiting. But invest $100,000 at 8% for 30 years and you get $1,000,000. That is real money. To get anywhere, it’s thus very important to quickly build a substantial foundation. Setting small goals in a situation which depends on exponential growth is a guaranteed way of not seeing results very fast. Conversely, putting in a large initial effort is a guaranteed way of seeing immediate and growing returns. The middle of the curve shows a proportional relationship between effort and results–work more and get more results; work less and get fewer results. In other words, this is the stage where extra effort is rewarded more than it was in the beginning, because it’s leveraged by the now higher production.”
“With further effort, the production ceiling starts to kick in due to limits on resources, customers, responsibilities, market size, etc. You might have found yourself with a job description that could be done in three hours a day even though you nominally have to work for eight hours. If so you know what I mean about reaching the productivity ceiling. In such a situation, it makes little sense to increase work effort by 25% if the return in productivity only increases by five percent. In such a case it is better to start additional projects, look for more responsibility, or learn something else. These projects would then each have their own curve for you to progress along.”
这儿讲了一个sigmoid function, d(total productivity)/d(total effort)=(1-P)P。当P比较小的时候,增长的速度是比较小的。想要到达类似指数级增长,必须要有一个比较大的基础,P=1/2的时候增长率最大。这也就像是财富的积累,当你只有一点本金的时候,即使你做了最正确的投资决策,也很难快速积累。当有一定量的本金后,那财富增长才能类似指数增长。但当你的资金到达了一定规模想要长期继续这种增长又变成不可能,因为你撞到了行业、市场、资源的天花板,以及你的资本可能已经是大头了。这样你继续努力,其实增长就变得不值得,在这个时候可以选择去做别的事。
“The optimal life strategy is to maximize total “production” for all the things you engage in or whatever the curves are measuring–presumably you’d have a curve for each project and multidimensional returns for each project, where total utility (see Building blocks) is maximized (see Ecological). Pricewise, it would be impossible to quantify because it would require you to determine the exchange rate between health, money, satisfaction, meaning, etc., some of which can’t be quantified. Those values can be subjectively determined, though (see Emotional).”
最佳策略其实应该是根据个人的优先级去平衡人各个方面的产出,使总产出达到最大。这里比较难以科学的去衡量,所以大概是那个意思。