Reward is often correlated with risk, where risk can either be quantified as volatility or qualified as uncertainty (lack of knowledge). This means that the higher the return rate, the higher the risk of loss of capital. Another principle, however, says that risk is more related to skill and knowledge. Both of these statements are true, but for different reasons. If you think about a fast race car, it’s a more risky vehicle to drive, but if you know how to drive it, the risk goes down.

这让我想起了Alex Honnold，徒手攀岩上了优胜美地的El Capitan。他在一次采访中说到了，在别人看来没有任何保护措施的攀岩无异于自杀，风险很高，但他自己却觉得他准备的很充分，他知道自己能做什么不能做什么，safe margin其实没有想象的那么低。

There are two conclusions from this. Frist, having a margin of safety in terms of principal is a good idea. In other words, having a low withdrawal rate, because the required rate of return is lower. A larger fund thus aloows for more safety. Second, invest in what you understand rather than what people tell you. This is the main reason I’m not telling you what to invest in. If you don’t know anything about investing, make it a point to learn.

跟风做投资，play other people’s game是一件风险很高的事。这就像你完全不懂赛车，然后去比F1一样。其次，safe withdraw rate其实是一个非常深度的话题，在“退休”后，每个月取出多少钱，怎么取，才能保证在自己X年的退休时间中不会因为取太多而导致中途没有钱了，或者取太少导致生活质量下降，而过于保守。美国有挺多研究这个方面的东西，但感觉国内这块其实科学地讨论不是很多，毕竟国内资本市场满打满算也就30年。但这块确实很值得研究。

Keep in mind though that you as an asset manager are not necessarily striving towards having an edge. Living off of your money will make preservation of pprincipal, keeping up with inflation, minimizing taxes, and providing a stipend more important that outperforming the market.

太多的人“seeking alpha”，结果确是绝大多数都跑输大盘。

This is because a college education creates followers, oor people who are habituated to being handed a bunch of instructions and then delivering a product, from years of pratice. It doesn’t matter what the form of the product is - that is, whether it’s an essay or a math problem. The important parts are the assignments, the deadlines, the grades and the annual reviews; a structure that is repeated at the employee level in corporations.

大学培养的大部分人是追随者。但说实在的打工人确实从社会角度来说是要占大头。而且打工人也自己的层级也有领导的对象和追随的对象，没有绝对的领导者。