“Luck and risk are both the reality that every outcome in life is guided by forces other than individual effort. They are so similar that you can’t believe in one without equally respecting the other. They both happen because the world is too complex to allow 100% of your actions to dictate 100% of your outcomes. They are driven by the same thing: You are one person in a game with seven billion other people and infinite moving parts. The accidental impact of actions outside of your control can be more consequential than the ones you consciously take.”

我们都需要承认概率在一个人的一生中所起到的作用。

“The line between “inspiringly bold” and “foolishly reckless” can be a millimeter thick and only visible with hindsight.”

天才和疯子只有一线之隔。

“Therefore, focus less on specific individuals and case studies and more on broad patterns.” “The more extreme the outcome, the less likely you can apply its lessons to your own life, because the more likely the outcome was influenced by extreme ends of luck or risk.”

越是极端的个例，参考的意义越小。应该看到更广阔的规律。