“The End of History Illusion is what psychologists call the tendency for people to be keenly aware of how much they’ve changed in the past, but to underestimate how much their personalities, desires, and goals are likely to change in the future. ” “All of us,” he said, “are walking around with an illusion—an illusion that history, our personal history, has just come to an end, that we have just recently become the people that we were always meant to be and will be for the rest of our lives.” We tend to never learn this lesson. Gilbert’s research shows people from age 18 to 68 underestimate how much they will change in the future.”

永远不要低估未来的可能性。

“Compounding works best when you can give a plan years or decades to grow. This is true for not only savings but careers and relationships. Endurance is key.”

复利效应其实应该有另一个角度：即使是在小的负面影响，通过不断地积累也会也有很大的英雄。“鸡毛蒜皮”“柴米油盐”的“小事”并不是简单地以加法积累的。从量变到质变会有一个turning point。

“Sunk costs—anchoring decisions to past efforts that can’t be refunded—are a devil in a world where people change over time. They make our future selves prisoners to our past, different, selves. It’s the equivalent of a stranger making major life decisions for you.

Embracing the idea that financial goals made when you were a different person should be abandoned without mercy versus put on life support and dragged on can be a good strategy to minimize future regret.”

沉默成本，是让未来的自己成为过去那个“不同”自己的囚犯。生活中有太多的例子是关于沉默成本的，比如一旦选择了一个专业，尤其是付出了很多心血读到了phd，就不想转行，即使这个专业是当年某个老师、长辈建议的，自己并不怎么喜欢的，太多的人还是放弃了自己重新选择的机会。他们喜欢说“当时某某某帮我选的，我没有选择”