“Investors often innocently take cues from other investors who are playing a different game than they are.” “When investors have different goals and time horizons—and they do in every asset class—prices that look ridiculous to one person can make sense to another, because the factors those investors pay attention to are different.” “A takeaway here is that few things matter more with money than understanding your own time horizon and not being persuaded by the actions and behaviors of people playing different games than you are.”

每个人都有不同的投资风格，听一些专家的点评，你都不知道他的投资风格是不是你所需要的就跟进是很愚蠢的。要了解自己的投资风格和时间线，不要被和你玩不通游戏的玩家所影响。

“An iron rule of finance is that money chases returns to the greatest extent that it can. If an asset has momentum—it’s been moving consistently up for a period of time—it’s not crazy for a group of short-term traders to assume it will keep moving up. Not indefinitely; just for the short period of time they need it to. Momentum attracts short-term traders in a reasonable way.”

对于跟踪momentum的投资者，即使价格再不合理，在短期内的操作也是合理的。

“Data from Attom, a company that tracks real estate transactions, shows the number of houses in America that sold more than once in a 12-month period—they were flipped—rose fivefold during the bubble, from 20,000 in the first quarter of 2000 to over 100,000 in the first quarter of 2004.⁵⁴ Flipping plunged after the bubble to less than 40,000 per quarter, where it’s roughly remained since.

Do you think these flippers cared about long-term price-to-rent ratios? Or whether the prices they paid were backed up by long-term income growth? Of course not.”

另一个例子是房产，在12个月内翻了5倍。都是flipper买来装修一下再转手卖掉，flipper根本不会关心20年后的价格，他们只关心2-3个月后的价格。