“The more you want something to be true, the more likely you are to believe a story that overestimates the odds of it being true” “Why do people listen to TV investment commentary that has little track record of success? Partly because the stakes are so high in investing.” “Consider that 85% of active mutual funds underperformed their benchmark over the 10 years ending 2018.⁶⁵ That figure has been fairly stable for generations. You would think an industry with such poor performance would be a niche service and have a hard time staying in business. But there’s almost five trillion dollars invested in these funds.⁶”

人们想通过投资赚钱，所以听一些电视“专家”的意见，这些专家自己也没什么可以证明投资逻辑的案例，甚至从数据上来说，满满的“失败”的案例。

“Everyone has an incomplete view of the world. But we form a complete narrative to fill in the gaps.” “[History] cannot be interpreted without the aid of imagination and intuition. The sheer quantity of evidence is so overwhelming that selection is inevitable. Where there is selection there is art. Those who read history tend to look for what proves them right and confirms their personal opinions. They defend loyalties. They read with a purpose to affirm or to attack. They resist inconvenient truth since everyone wants to be on the side of the angels. Just as we start wars to end all wars.” “Hindsight, the ability to explain the past, gives us the illusion that the world is understandable. It gives us the illusion that the world makes sense, even when it doesn’t make sense. That’s a big deal in producing mistakes in many fields.”

每个人都不可能完全的客观，有选择就有艺术。人们永远在尝试解释这个世界，很多的理论都是建立在一些公理上的，这些公理一旦被推翻，那所有的理论就自然不成立。这并不是说理论没有用，而是什么时候用什么样的理论很重要。

“Wanting to believe we are in control is an emotional itch that needs to be scratched, rather than an analytical problem to be calculated and solved. The illusion of control is more persuasive than the reality of uncertainty. So we cling to stories about outcomes being in our control.”

控制感是一种自我和解。虽然绝大部分人没有办法控制自己的命运，总是在随波逐流。